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来源：百度知道 编辑：UC知道 时间：2024/05/22 15:24:22
在世界原油价格节节攀升，不断挑战人们承受极限的今天，究其原因、走势及其将对我们的生活产生什么影响，迅速成为人们当前不得不思考的问题。就此，笔者细致阅读知名学者近年所著相关文献，在考虑到供需失衡、地缘政治、投机炒作、美元持续走低等多种因素的基础上，进行综合分析和理性思考，并结合最新时事信息，通过数据和真实引言，慎重地提出了自己的看法，本人认为高油价幕后的真正推手是美国的弱势美元政策。美元持续走低导致消费品溢价，引发通货膨胀，石油生产国为减轻高消费负担，使其主要出口产品—石油涨价，但同时这又加重了通货膨胀，结果是油价和通胀在相互作用中不断攀升。世界范围内的投资或投机资本出于保值或是增值目的纷纷进入国际原油市场，这又进一步推高油价。石油枯竭论和供需失衡学说不过是投机者们用来炒作的由头，地缘政治、突发事件和季节规律也在这一过程中发挥了推波助澜的作用。通过刨析高油价原因，从美元走势看原油走势，笔者斗胆预测相当长一段时间内油价将在百美元以上高位震荡。就其影响而言，从宏观上来说，全球经济将从高增长阶段进入低增长阶段，资本将从石油消费国转移到石油生产国。从微观上来说，高油价影响着我们每个人的日常生活。
关键词：贬值 炒作 政策 走势 影响
Climbs successively in the world crude price, challenges the people to withstand limit unceasingly today, will investigate its reason, the trend and will have any influence to our life, will become the question which rapidly the people current can not but ponder. In light of this, the author read the well-known scholar to be recent years related carefully the literature, in considered the supply and demand was unbalanced, the geopolitics, hyped, US dollar to continue congenially to decline and so on many kinds of factor foundations, carried on the generalized analysis and the rationality pondered, and unified the newest current event information, through the data and the real introduction, proposed prudently my view, myself thought the high oil price secret genuine hand slap was US's weak trend US dollar policy. US dollar continues to decline causes the consumable premium, the initiation inflation, the oil-producting country to lighten the high consumption burden, makes its main