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Oskar Morgenstern, 1902-1976

Oskar Morgenstern was groomed in the Austrian tradition, but was considerably less dogmatic in his tastes. Succeeding Hayek in 1931 as director of the Austrian Institute for Business Cycle research, Morgenstern's research interests were not in the Hayekian monetary overinvestment theory, but rather in speculation and economic prediction (the subject of his 1928 habilitation thesis). A professor at the University of Vienna in 1935, Morgenstern was also an active participant in Karl Menger's Vienna Colloquium and employed Abraham Wald in his institute. He was also one of the great critics of the Austrian theory of capital, helping to bury the notion of the "average period of production".

His 1935 article on the difficulties of perfect foresight, which stemmed partly from his Austrian training, and the greater generality of "strategic behavior" over "robinson-crusoe", price-taking behavior, led