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来源：百度知道 编辑：UC知道 时间：2024/06/07 05:10:53
边坡地表变形的动态预测
摘要
本设计完成了布沼坝露天边坡地表位移的监测数据的动态分析、误差判别、以及后续变形的灰色预测，主要完成如下几项内容：
1．误差判别。 根据点位测量的误差理论，确定定误差值域范围，绘出误差椭圆；对各监测点进行位移与误差判别分析，为地表位移动态分析和灰色预测提供理论基础。
2．地表位移的监测数据分析。在误差判别基础上，对移动点的水平位移和沉降进行动态分析，从而评估边坡岩体的移动性态和安全性。具体通过对监测数据整理，作出水平位移与沉降量在监测时期的累计位移曲线图，水平位移历时曲线，以及沉降历时曲线；并根据图中曲线的特征对边坡地表位移进行动态分析。
3．灰色预测。影响边坡地表的位移的因素具有很多不确定性，其位移变形的过程是一个灰色系统，为了更为有效和深入地掌握边坡变形的趋势，因此对边坡地表的位移进行灰色预测。首先进行原始水平位移值的非等间隔数据序列的交换，建立GM（1，1）模型，求出灰色参数，计算出预测水平位移值，其次做出原始位移与预测位移的图例进行对比分析，最后对未来的地表位移进行预测，画出水平位移历时曲线图并进行精度检验。
关键词 灰色系统；水平位移；沉降量；误差
翻译:
The slope deformation and dynamic prediction
Abstract
The design was completed and the slope surface displacement Buzhaoba open to the dynamic analysis of the monitoring data, error correction, Gray forecast deformation and follow-up, following the completion of several major elements :
1. Error correction. According point measurement error theory, the error range set, draw the error
Summary
This design completed the dynamic state of the monitor data for moving of the cloth dam open-air side sloping fields form analysis, error margin discretion, and follow-up transform of gray estimate, mainly complete as follows a few contentses:
1.the error margin distinguish.According to the error margin theories of point diagraph, the assurance settles the error margin value area scope, drawing an error margin oval;Carry on to move to distinguish analysis with error margin to each monitor point, move dynamic state analysis and gray estimate to provide theories foundation for the earth's surface.
2.earth's surface the monitor data for moving analyze.Distinguish foundation in the error margin up, move and sink to decline to carry on dynamic state analysis to the level of ambulation point, evaluate the ambulation and safety of the side ascent rock body thus.Concretely pass a sorting to the monitor data, make a level to move and sink to decline quantit