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We continue to encounter a host of questions on the
relationship between different kinds of cyclical turning
points and the sequencing of asset market activity. Is the
trough in growth or a genuine growth recovery the better
signal for asset markets to turn? Is the same event
relevant for equities and bonds? Does it ever make sense
to sell government bonds before equities – or other risky
assets – recover from recessions? When might
commodities bounce relative to these other assets?
The distinction between different kinds of economic
turning points has become even more important because,
unlike most post-war recessions (but like the last two),
we expect growth to trough in absolute terms well before
we expect ‘good’ growth to resume – so that the trough in
growth and the peak in the unemployment rate are set to
be a long way apart. And the phase in which we are past
the worst point of contraction but still

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