UC知道有谁能帮我翻译这段文章??谢谢
来源：百度知道 编辑：UC知道 时间：2024/05/30 10:46:11
Suppose we take the average of China’s capital account balance over the 1999–2002 period—a surplus equal to 11/2 percent of GDP—as a rough estimate of its “normal” net capital flows. China’s capital account surplus in 2003 and 2004 was much larger than that—on the order of 7–8 percent of GDP—but much of that appears to have been driven by speculative capitalinflows, induced primarily by an expected appreciation of the renminbi. If normal net capital flows are in surplus by 11/2 percent of GDP, equilibrium then calls for an underlying current account deficit equal to 11/2 percent of GDP. The “underlying” current account can be defined as the actual current account balance adjusted for two factors: cyclical movements in the economy that make the demand for imports unusually high or low, and the lagged trade effects of earlier exchange rate changes that are not yet visible in the published statistics. China’s actual overall current account surpluses in 2003 and 2004 were 3.3 and 4.2 perce
如果采取平均余额比我国资本帐盈余相当于1999c2002perioda11/2% gdpas粗略估计其净资本的正常流动. 我国在2003年和2004年的资本帐盈余是远大于Thaton秩序7c8%gdpbut 这似乎是许多投机capitalinflows驱使, 主要诱发人民币升值的预期. 如果是在正常的资本净流入盈余占GDP11/2、 然后,需要一个基本平衡的经常帐赤字相当于国内生产总值的百分之11/2. 经常帐基本可以定义为实际的经常帐余额按两个因素: 周期性的经济波动,使进口需求异常偏高或偏低, 滞后效应和贸易汇率变化比较明显尚未公布统计资料. 我国实际总经常帐盈余在2003年和2004年分别为3.3和4.2%,国内生产总值分别 背后经常帐盈余高于实际的无疑是这两年因过热状态 推动了中国经济增长方式的要求,因为真正的进口、 贸易加权价值人民币贬值期间,使出了积极的贸易平衡效果的细节. 无佯装不当精度 经常帐盈余2003c04背后可能的痛恨41/2c5占GDP 我国实际和潜在的经常帐盈余将是2005年仍然较大.